Iran Election Predictions

As the protests head into the second week, Mousavi has made his most daring statement yet, but questions abound about what’s happening on the ground. The protests began at the suspicion of election fraud, but is that what drives them? Are protesters fighting for their vote to be counted, or are they –as sometimes happens in repressive regimes –using the occasion as a pretext for a more revolutionary fight? It’s entirely possible also that what began as protests against election fraud are becoming more radicalized (in a good way). It’s difficult to know, and I do not want to conflate the actions of the the political elite with the aspirations and demands of the Iranians who are now demonstrating on the streets. Mousavi’s speech, which confronted Khamanei on several levels, could be an effect of a more revolutionary sentiment taking hold among protesters. His speech however, was still within the bounds of the Islamic regime.

Some analysis –before the election began: